Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
