Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
